In partnership with
Last week oil did something it hasn't done since 1985.
Up 36% in one week.
WTI crude: $91.
Brent: $92.
Analysts now saying $150 is possible if Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
Meanwhile, economy LOST 92,000 jobs in February.
Unemployment: 4.4% (rising).
High oil + weak jobs = Stagflation.
This week decides if it gets worse.
What Actually Matters This Week
Wednesday: CPI (Inflation Data)
Expected: 2.5% year-over-year.
But here's the problem: Oil spiked AFTER January data was collected.
This CPI reading won't capture the oil surge yet.
Next month's will.
Translation: Wednesday's number is backwards-looking.
Real inflation shock shows up in April's data.
Friday: PCE + JOLTS (Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge + Job Openings)
PCE expected: 2.9% year-over-year.
JOLTS: Shows how many job openings exist.
If job openings collapse, it confirms hiring freeze.
If PCE stays elevated, it confirms inflation isn't dead.
Tuesday: $ORCL ( ▲ 3.75% ) Earnings
AI spend indicator.
$NVDA ( ▲ 3.5% ) beat earnings but stock tanked anyway.
Oracle will show if cloud infrastructure spending is holding up or cracking.
Market doesn't care about beats anymore. It cares about guidance.
The Fed's Nightmare Scenario
Oil spiking → Inflation reaccelerating.
Jobs collapsing → Recession fears rising.
Fed can't cut rates (oil at $91, inflation threat).
Fed can't raise rates (economy losing jobs).
They're paralyzed.
Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed President) said Friday:
"The oil price shock is a real thing."
Translation: We're screwed and we know it.
What This Means For Volatility
$VIX ( ▼ 10.91% ) closed Friday at 29.
Normal VIX: 12-15.
VIX above 25 = fear.
VIX at 29 = panic.
This week:
CPI Wednesday.
Oracle Tuesday.
PCE Friday.
Three potential volatility spikes.
For emotional traders: Paralysis.
For systematic traders: Premium opportunities.
The AI Layoff Story Nobody's Talking About
$XYZ ( ▲ 2.7% ) (Jack Dorsey's company) cut 40% of staff last month.
4,000 people.
CFO said on record: "Due to artificial intelligence."
That's not automation replacing factory workers.
That's AI replacing white-collar jobs.
February jobs: -92,000.
How much was AI displacement?
Nobody knows yet.
But if Block is the leading indicator...
This gets worse before it gets better.
What To Watch (Priority Order)
1. Oil price movement (Is it stabilizing at $91 or heading to $150?)
2. CPI Wednesday (Even though it's backward-looking, market will react)
3. Oracle earnings Tuesday (AI spend reality check)
4. JOLTS Friday (Job openings collapsing = confirmation of hiring freeze)
5. PCE Friday (Fed's preferred inflation metric)
Everything else is noise.
How To Play This Week
If you don't have a systematic approach to navigate weeks like this, you'll be paralyzed every time volatility spikes.
Cash-secured puts (how to enter positions systematically)
Covered calls (how to generate income from holdings)
Strike selection (not guessing)
The 50% profit rule (when to close)
Position sizing (risk management)
Quality screening (only stocks you'd own long-term)
No cost. Just mechanics.
– Pete
DISCLAIMER
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss. Most options traders lose money. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Consult a professional before trading.
Privacy-first email. Built for real protection.
Proton Mail offers what others won’t:
End-to-end encryption by default
Zero access to your data
Open-source and independently audited
Based in Switzerland with strong privacy laws
Free to start, no ads
We don’t scan your emails. We don’t sell your data. And we don’t make you dig through settings to find basic security. Proton is built for people who want control, not compromise.
Simple, secure, and free.