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Two green days in a row.
$DJI ( ▲ 0.69% ) up 0.3%.
$SPY ( ▲ 1.26% ) up 0.3%.
$QQQ ( ▲ 1.57% ) up 0.4%.
On the surface things look stable.
Underneath the surface this market is anything but.
Let's get into what's actually happening.
Oil Is Back Above $100. Again.
Yesterday's pullback in oil lasted exactly one day.
Iran launched fresh attacks on energy infrastructure overnight setting a massive UAE gas field on fire. Israel responded by killing Iran's security chief.
Brent crude jumped back to just under $104. WTI trading below $94.
And here's the number that should concern every American regardless of whether they invest:
Diesel just crossed $5 a gallon.
Up from $3.65 just one month ago.
Diesel is not just a trucking story. It is an everything story.
Every product that gets shipped, every piece of food that gets transported, every package that gets delivered, diesel touches all of it.
Goldman Sachs put out a note saying the biggest impact of this war isn't even on crude oil, it's on refined products.
Jet fuel. Diesel. Fuel oil.
Nearly 60% of typical Persian Gulf crude exports are the medium and heavy grades used to produce exactly these products.
No products or regions are fully immune, Goldman's words.
The inflation data the Fed is working with this week does not reflect any of this yet.
The Fed Starts Its Meeting Today
Two-day meeting. Decision Wednesday.
99% probability rates stay exactly where they are.
The real story is not the decision, it's what Powell says about the path forward in an economy that looked completely different three weeks ago.
Rate cuts were on the table in February.
They are not on the table now.
Watch Wednesday carefully.
One Bright Spot: Airlines
Interesting story developing in the airline sector.
Despite surging fuel costs, airline stocks rose today.
$DAL ( ▲ 1.87% ) , $AAL ( ▲ 1.77% ) , $ALK ( ▲ 3.33% ) all up.
The reason? Customers are rushing to lock in airfares before prices go higher.
Alaska Airlines CEO said it directly, when prices spiked, demand spiked with it.
People are front-running inflation in real time.
Delta raised its Q1 revenue guidance.
American expects higher revenue this quarter.
It's a strange market when surging fuel costs actually drive near-term revenue higher for airlines. But here we are.
Free Trade Idea: $NKE ( ▲ 1.31% )
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Options involve risk.
Nike has been one of the more interesting setups on my radar this week.
The stock has been beaten down significantly, trading at $55.41, well below its 50-day moving average of $62.20 and its 200-day moving average of $67.15. RSI is sitting at 33.22, approaching oversold territory. Bollinger Bands show price near the mid band after a prolonged downtrend.
⚠️ Critical note before anything else: $NKE ( ▲ 1.31% ) earnings are March 18, 2026 — tomorrow. This means any trade placed right now carries earnings risk. The stock could move significantly in either direction on the report. This is not a setup to size aggressively into ahead of earnings. If you are considering any position, size conservatively and understand the risk you are taking on.
With that said, here is what the educational trade idea looks like:
Strategy: Cash-Secured Put
Strike Price: $53.00
Expiration: April 24, 2026 (38 DTE)
Premium: $2.19/share ($219 per contract)
Collateral Required: $5,300
ROC on Collateral: 4.13%
In plain English, you would be agreeing to potentially buy 100 shares of Nike at $53 about 4.6% below where it's trading today. In exchange, you collect $219 upfront. Your true breakeven is $50.81 per share, nearly 9% below the current price.
If Nike stays above $53 through April 24, you keep the $219 and the trade is done.
If Nike drops below $53 and you get assigned, you own shares of one of the most recognized brands on the planet at a significant discount. Then you start selling covered calls to collect more income while you wait.
The fundamental picture on Nike is mixed right now, real operational challenges, China exposure, and margin pressure. But a 7/10 fundamentals score, 42%+ gross margins, and a 3% dividend yield mean this is not a company falling apart. It is a company going through a difficult period.
That is a very different situation.
Do your own research. Understand the earnings risk. Size accordingly.
How I Found This Setup In About 30 Seconds
I'm not going to pretend I spent hours screening for this.
I pulled up ArkPicks, filtered for oversold cash-secured put setups, and NKE was sitting right there. RSI flagged, technical analysis populated, options chain loaded, trade idea calculated, earnings date highlighted front and center.
The whole evaluation took seconds, not hours.
That's the entire point of the tool.
This market moves fast. Opportunities appear and disappear. Spending Sunday night manually screening 200 tickers is not a sustainable process, especially when you have a job, a family, and a life outside of trading.
ArkPicks does the screening. You do the thinking.
Build the Ark.
— Pete
This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. The NKE example is used for illustrative and educational purposes only and does not constitute a stock recommendation. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Most traders lose money. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Elon's Next Move His Greatest?
Watch Elon Musk's next move closely. According to an all-hands meeting uncovered by $1 billion money manager Louis Navellier, Elon will soon draw the curtain on "Project Apex" — a new AI breakthrough that could trigger a 70X investment boom. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says what Elon and team has achieved is singular and has never been done before. Watch Louis present a LIVE DEMO in our free presentation and get the name and ticker symbol of the company at the center of it all. No, it's not Tesla or SpaceX.