Markets aren't messing around today.
$DJI ( ▲ 1.03% ) : -1.5% (-700+ points)
$SPY ( ▲ 1.4% ) : -1.1%
$QQQ ( ▲ 1.68% ) : -1.1%
Software sector $IGV ( ▲ 2.64% ) : -5%
This isn't a dip.
This is a statement.
What Happened
Friday: Supreme Court kills Trump's tariffs. Market rallies.
Saturday: Trump announces NEW 15% baseline tariff on all imports.
Monday: Market realizes nothing was actually resolved.
The fallout:
EU rejects the new tariff: "A deal is a deal."
India postpones US visit indefinitely.
Hedge funds selling global stocks at fastest pace since Liberation Day (April 2025).
Translation:
Friday's "clarity" lasted 48 hours.
We're back to chaos.
The Software Apocalypse Returns
Software stocks are getting annihilated. Again.
IGV (software ETF): -5% today
Back to April 2025 lows (post-Liberation Day panic).
Individual carnage:
Atlassian (TEAM): Back to 2018 levels
Adobe (ADBE): Approaching 2019 prices
Workday (WDAY): Deep into 2020 pandemic territory
Over the weekend, a research note from Citrini stirred the pot on AI disruption fears.
Market woke up Monday and sold everything software-related.
The narrative:
"AI is going to replace enterprise software. Why pay for Salesforce when AI agents can do it cheaper?"
Whether it's true or not doesn't matter.
The market believes it today.
Payments Stocks Join The Carnage
New sector getting hit: Payments.
$AXP ( ▲ 1.73% ) : -7% (worst day since Liberation Day)
$V ( ▼ 0.21% ) : -3%
$AFRM ( ▲ 2.46% ) : -6%
The fear:
AI could eliminate payment friction.
If AI handles transactions directly, who needs Visa/Amex?
$PYPL ( ▲ 0.36% ) : +7% (outlier, bucking the trend)
Same pattern as software:
AI disruption narrative spreads to new sector.
Entire sector sells off indiscriminately.
Quality companies get thrown out with the junk.
The One Stock Working: Apple
While everything burns, $AAPL ( ▲ 2.21% ) is up 5.9% over the past month.
Why?
Apple is NOT spending hundreds of billions on AI capex.
Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta: $665 billion combined AI spending planned for 2026.
Apple: Building modestly, not going all-in.
The market's message:
"Companies spending billions on AI = Risk"
"Companies NOT going all-in on AI = Safety"
Ironic twist:
Apple criticized all of 2025 for falling behind on AI.
Now rewarded in 2026 for sitting it out.
What This Week Really Matters
Forget tariff noise.
Here's what actually decides market direction:
Wednesday: $NVDA ( ▲ 3.5% ) earnings
THE event of the week.
If Nvidia beats and guides strong → AI spending justified, tech stabilizes.
If Nvidia disappoints → Software selloff accelerates, entire market tanks.
Wednesday: $CRM ( ▲ 0.83% ) earnings
Software sector stress test.
Can they prove AI helps instead of hurts?
Stock down 20%+ already. Needs to deliver.
Thursday: US-Iran talks resume
Oil up 15% YTD on Middle East tensions.
Talks go well = Oil drops, inflation eases, market rallies.
Talks fail = Oil spikes, recession fears, market tanks.
Three catalysts. Three days. This week decides February.
Why I Research Every Month-End
This is exactly why I do deep research the last weekend of every month.
Markets are chaos.
Software down 5% one day.
Payments down 7% the next.
Apple up while everyone else down.
By month-end, patterns emerge:
Which sectors held up under pressure?
Which got oversold on fear vs fundamentals?
Which stocks have elevated IV but solid businesses?
Which catalysts (earnings, ex-div dates) are coming in March?
That becomes my March 2026 watchlist.
The March 2026 Watchlist ($9)
Every last weekend of the month, I lock in and research.
Not headlines. Not hot takes.
Deep analysis on 30 stocks:
Fundamentals (earnings, revenue, margins, debt)
Technicals (support/resistance, RSI, Bollinger Bands)
Options liquidity (can I actually trade this?)
IV rank (is premium elevated or compressed?)
Sector rotation (being bought or sold?)
Upcoming catalysts (earnings dates, dividends, events)
News sentiment (AI fears? Consumer weakness? Tariff impact?)
Then I tier them:
Tier 1: Ready to trade now (clean setups, rich premium)
Tier 2: Watch list (waiting for better entry or IV spike)
Tier 3: Avoid (too risky, fundamentals deteriorating)
This is my roadmap for March.
What I'm Seeing For March (Preview)
Without giving away the full list, here are emerging themes:
Theme 1: Software bifurcation
Some companies using AI to improve (potential recovery plays).
Some being replaced by AI (continued weakness).
Deep research separates winners from losers.
Theme 2: Quality getting oversold
Dividend aristocrats, blue chips down on rotation.
Solid fundamentals. Elevated IV. Prime CSP opportunities.
Theme 3: Apple's playbook works
Companies NOT overspending on AI outperforming.
Conservative capex = Market reward in 2026.
Theme 4: Energy continuation
Up 22% YTD. AI data centers need power.
Several names with rich covered call premium.
Theme 5: Payments sector opportunity
AmEx down 7% today on AI fears.
Is that rational or panic?
Research reveals answer.
Why $9? Why Now?
I'm testing something.
I do this research anyway for myself.
Weekly Wheel Picks subscribers get 6-7 stocks every Sunday ($399/year).
But what if people just want the monthly deep-dive?
30 stocks. End of month. One payment.
One-time. No upsells. No subscription.
If it's valuable, I might make it monthly.
If not, this is a one-time test.
What you get:
✅ 30 stocks I'm personally watching for March
✅ Full fundamental + technical analysis
✅ IV rank and options liquidity assessment
✅ Tier rankings (trade now vs watch vs avoid)
✅ Catalysts and key dates mapped out
✅ My personal notes on each
✅ Delivered as Google Doc right away
See you in March with a plan.
– Pete
DISCLAIMER
Educational Only: This email and March watchlist are educational only. Not financial advice or recommendations. No Guarantees: Watchlist stocks are for research purposes. No predictions of performance. Stocks can lose value. Substantial Risk: Options trading and investing involve substantial risk of loss. Do Your Own Research: Watchlist is a starting point, not a replacement for your own due diligence. Author Trading: Author may hold positions in or trade securities mentioned. Not Personalized: Does not consider your individual situation. Consult a licensed financial advisor. Offer Terms: $9 one-time payment. Digital Google Doc. No refunds after delivery. Expires Feb 28, 2026 11:59pm ET. No subscription.