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The market is surging today.
$DIA ( ▲ 0.15% ) up over 900 points.
$SPY ( ▼ 0.33% ) up nearly 2%.
$QQQ ( ▼ 0.76% ) up over 2%.
Oil down 9%.
After five brutal weeks it finally feels like a Monday worth waking up for.
But before you get too comfortable let's talk about what actually happened this morning.
And more importantly what didn't.
What Changed
Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that the US would postpone military strikes on Iran's power and energy infrastructure for five days while talks continue.
He described the conversations as — quote — very good and productive.
Oil immediately collapsed.
WTI dropped from $113 to below $90 in a matter of minutes.
Brent pulled back from $113 to around $100.
Markets rocketed higher on the news.
What Didn't Change
Here is the part that is not making headlines this morning.
Iran's Foreign Ministry came out and flatly denied that any talks with the US are happening.
Their exact words, no dialogue.
So we have Trump saying very productive conversations are underway.
And Iran saying there are no conversations at all.
One of those things is true.
The market is betting on Trump's version.
For now.
Additionally while the postponement was announced, Iran launched fresh attacks in the region this morning.
The Strait of Hormuz is still essentially closed.
Oil is still up 30 to 40% since this war began.
The Fed is still stuck between inflation and a weakening consumer.
None of the structural problems that drove five weeks of losses disappeared this morning.
What disappeared was the immediate fear of escalation.
That is not the same thing as resolution.
The Energy Secretary Weighed In
Energy Secretary Chris Wright spoke at an industry event this morning and called the conflict a short-term disruption that will lead to the end of a decades-old problem.
He pointed to Iran's 1979 hostage crisis, its funding of global terrorism, and its nuclear ambitions as things the White House simply could not kick down the road another administration.
He also confirmed the US has released 400 million barrels from the strategic petroleum reserve and temporarily waived sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude at sea as stopgap measures.
The administration's message is clear.
This ends but not immediately.
And not without more turbulence between now and then.
What This Means For Your Positions
If you have open cash secured put positions from last week's sell-off, today is the day to apply the 50% rule.
If you can close out your position and capture 50% of your premium in a matter of days take it.
Free up your collateral.
Take the risk off the table.
Redeploy into the next opportunity.
You do not need to hold through five more days of Iran and the US potentially contradicting each other in real time.
A percent and a half on your money in four days is a genuinely good outcome.
Do not let greed turn a win into a headache.
Five weeks ago this market looked completely different.
The conversation was about rate cuts and AI dominance and smooth economic sailing.
Today we are watching oil prices move 9% in a single session because of a Truth Social post.
Today we are watching Iran deny talks that Trump says are productive.
Today we are watching bonds barely move on a 900 point Dow rally because the market does not fully trust what it is seeing.
This is the environment we are operating in.
And the lesson of the last five weeks is the same lesson the Ark Strategy teaches every single day.
You cannot predict what comes next.
You can only control your process.
The investors who stayed disciplined and kept accumulating through the sell-off are exactly where they need to be today.
The investors who panicked and sold are watching the recovery without them.
Process over prediction.
Every time.
Find The Next Opportunity Faster
Today's rally is creating something interesting.
The oversold setups that were everywhere last week are starting to recover.
Some of them quickly.
Which means the window to find and evaluate the best remaining opportunities is shorter than it was five days ago.
This is exactly when having a screening tool matters most.
ArkPicks automatically surfaces the top cash secured put and covered call setups — RSI, delta, DTE, return on collateral, earnings flags — updated daily so you are never chasing stale data in a fast moving market.
And this week we have something special for you.
Your first month is just $5.
That is $92 off your first month subscription.
Try the tool this week while the market is moving.
See exactly how it surfaces setups in real time.
I think you are going to love it.
— Pete
This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Most traders lose money. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
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