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Let's cut straight to it.
The $SPY ( ▼ 0.33% ) is down over 1% today.
$QQQ ( ▼ 0.76% ) down 1.4%.
$DIA ( ▲ 0.15% ) down 0.8%.
Oil back above $107 for Brent.
And 94% of traders on Polymarket think Q1 ends in the red.
Not might end red.
Think.
The Ceasefire That Isn't
Monday felt like hope.
Trump posted about productive talks.
Markets surged 2%.
Tuesday Iran denied any talks were happening.
Wednesday a modest rebound.
Thursday fresh strikes from both sides and Trump telling Iran to get serious and make a deal before it is too late.
We now have two days left on the five day pause on power plant strikes.
Iran formally responded to the US truce proposal today, which pared some of the morning losses.
But here is the honest read on where we are.
Neither side has agreed to anything.
Both sides are still attacking each other.
And oil is holding firmly above $100.
This is not a resolution.
This is a negotiation in the middle of an active war.
Those rarely move in straight lines.
Trump Said Something Today That Stopped Me
In a Cabinet meeting this afternoon Trump said, and I want you to hear this directly:
Frankly I thought oil prices would go up more and I thought the stock market would go down more. The market reaction hasn't been nearly as severe as I thought.
Let that sit for a moment.
The President of the United States expected this to be worse than it has been.
He also called the current pullback a short-term hit leading to higher stock prices in the future.
History actually supports that framing.
Argus analysts pointed out today that pullbacks occur frequently and the average recovery time is about one month. For corrections it may take four months.
But, and this is critical, they also said single digit returns for 2026 are the base case.
Not the 15 to 25% returns investors have enjoyed for the past three years.
The era of easy gains is over for now.
BlackRock's Warning Is Still The Most Important Story Nobody Is Talking About
This morning BlackRock President Rob Kapito said investors are mispricing the Iran risks.
Growth could be hit by two percentage points.
Inflation could rise by a similar margin.
Even if the war ends tomorrow, oil could still spike to $150 because it takes time for disrupted supply chains to return to normal.
The President of the world's largest asset manager is telling you the market has not fully priced in what is already happening.
That is not a bear on a YouTube channel saying scary things for clicks.
That is the person who manages more money than most countries have.
$META ( ▲ 2.03% ) Is Having A Very Bad Week
Meta stock dropped 6% today after losing a landmark product liability trial.
A jury found Meta 70% responsible for harms to a young user caused by addictive platform design.
The comparison being made is Big Tobacco.
Thousands of similar lawsuits are waiting in the pipeline.
If this precedent holds on appeal, the entire advertising business model of social media gets fundamentally challenged.
Meta also laid off 700 employees this week while simultaneously awarding nine-figure stock bonuses to top executives if the market cap hits $9 trillion.
That combination is not going to play well publicly or legally.
What This Week Has Taught Us
Here is the pattern of 2026 in a single paragraph.
Market sells off. Hope appears. Brief rally. Reality returns. Repeat.
And every week that pattern plays out, the investors without a real strategy make another emotional decision they will regret.
They bought Monday's rally.
They panic sold Tuesday's fade.
They chased Wednesday's bounce.
They are watching Thursday's red and wondering what to do next.
If that sounds exhausting, it is.
Because reacting to headlines is exhausting.
Having a process is not.
This Is The Environment Option Sellers Were Built For
Elevated volatility.
Oversold quality stocks everywhere.
Premium at some of the highest levels of the year.
A market that is moving fast and punishing the undisciplined.
This is not a market to sit out.
This is a market to execute systematically in.
Ready To Learn The Strategy?
If this week has made you realize you need a real framework, not just market commentary, I want to help you get there.
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Just real education for real investors navigating a real market.
Build the Ark.
— Pete
This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Most traders lose money. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Discount code ARK50 applies to self-study course purchases only.
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