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This morning at 9:30 AM: $DJI ( ▲ 1.03% ) down 800 points.
This afternoon at 4:00 PM: $DJI ( ▲ 1.03% ) up 240 points.
That's a 1,040-point swing.
Oil hit $119 overnight.
Closed at $86.
That's a $33 swing in crude in 18 hours.
Trump said the war is "very complete, pretty much."
Markets rallied.
Oil crashed.
Everyone's celebrating.
Let me show you what actually happened.
The Timeline
Sunday night: Oil spikes to $119. Iran war escalating. Futures tank.
Monday morning: Dow opens down 800 points. Panic everywhere.
Monday 8:30 AM: G7 meets to discuss tapping strategic petroleum reserves. Decide to hold off.
Monday afternoon: Trump tells CBS: "They have no navy, no communications, no Air Force. War is very complete."
Monday 3:00 PM: Markets reverse. Oil plummets. Relief rally.
Monday close: $QQQ ( ▲ 1.68% ) +1.4%, $DJI ( ▲ 1.03% ) +0.5%, $SPY ( ▲ 1.4% ) +0.8%. Oil -5%.
Crisis over, right?
Not Quite
Here's what didn't change today:
Strait of Hormuz: Still closed. No tanker traffic.
Iran oil production: Still zero.
Iraq production: Still down 70%.
Kuwait production: Still being cut.
Oil price: Still $86. Was $67 on February 15.
That's still 28% higher than three weeks ago.
But one Trump quote about "no Air Force" and markets added $2 trillion back.
This is what hope trading looks like.
What The Data Actually Says
Wilmington Trust's chief economist said it today:
"It will hit CPI and PCE headline inflation right away, but there's more of a concern for economic growth than for inflation."
Translation:
Oil spike = higher costs for consumers and businesses.
Higher costs = slower spending.
Slower spending = slower growth.
But inflation data this week won't show it yet.
CPI comes out Wednesday.
PCE comes out Friday.
Both measure February data.
Oil didn't spike until March.
So this week's numbers will look fine.
Next month's numbers? Different story.
The Fed Is Stuck
Rate cut expectations before Iran war: July 2026.
Rate cut expectations now: September 2026.
Why the delay?
Oil at $86 = inflation pressure.
Can't cut rates when oil is spiking.
But also:
Job losses mounting (we lost 92,000 jobs last report).
Can't raise rates when economy is slowing.
This is stagflation.
High inflation + slow growth = Fed paralyzed.
What Systematic Traders Did Today
While most people panicked at the open and FOMO'd at the close, systematic option sellers executed their plan.
This morning:
VIX spiked. Premium elevated. Fear high.
Quality stocks at support levels.
Systematic approach:
Sell cash-secured puts on stocks you'd own anyway.
Same strikes. Same delta. Same framework.
Just collecting richer premium because fear drove prices up.
This afternoon:
Markets rallied. VIX dropped. Premium compressed.
Systematic approach:
Close winning positions at 50% profit.
Don't get greedy. Take the gain.
Reset for next cycle.
No emotion. No panic. No FOMO.
Just executing the framework whether markets are red or green.
This Isn't Over
Trump says war is "very complete."
Maybe it is. Maybe it's not.
But the oil supply crisis is still real:
Strait of Hormuz closed
Iran production offline
Iraq production down 70%
Oil still up 28% from three weeks ago
One good news cycle doesn't fix physical supply issues.
And inflation data next month will reflect today's reality:
Oil averaged $100+ for most of March.
That shows up in April's CPI.
That's when markets will have to deal with it.
What I'm Watching This Week
Not "buy these stocks."
Not "this is the bottom."
Just: Here are 3 quality stocks that fit the Ark Strategy framework, here's what I'm looking for in terms of support levels and premium, and here's how I'd approach them systematically.
All three: Quality businesses I'd be happy to own if assigned.
All three: Elevated premium right now because of volatility.
All three: Systematic setups using the 30-delta rule and 10% position sizing.
What you'll see:
The 3 stocks and why they fit the framework
Technical analysis (support levels, RSI, moving averages)
Premium analysis (what strikes I'm watching and why)
Risk management (position sizing, delta selection)
Assignment scenarios (what happens if I get the shares)
– Pete
DISCLAIMER
This email is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendations to buy or sell any securities. The stocks mentioned in the referenced video are examples used to demonstrate a systematic options strategy framework and should not be interpreted as recommendations. Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Most options traders lose money. Market conditions can change rapidly and past performance does not guarantee future results. The analysis shared represents my personal approach to evaluating trades and may not be appropriate for your financial situation, risk tolerance, or investment objectives. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor.
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